Line logic:

1) This week, the aluminum price went up again, and the phenomenon that the fundamentals continued to be removed from the Treasury continued to provide favorable conditions. At the macro level, the European Central Bank increased its policy of easing, and the Federal Reserve maintained the current scale of bond purchase. At the same time, the central bank of China also extended MLF to provide liquidity for the domestic market, and the macro overall environment was good;

2) The inventory of aluminum ingots in the middle of the week decreased by 0.7 to 589 thousand tons compared with that of last week, and the situation of slightly going to the warehouse continued. As the new year is approaching, some end markets begin to show signs of off-season, and orders for downstream automobile wheel hubs have declined slightly, but orders in photovoltaic, electronic and packaging fields are still relatively stable. After the environmental protection and production restriction in Henan Province, the production of small enterprises decreased this week due to the power shortage in Zhejiang Province. On the supply side, the power problem led to a small reduction in production of Yunan aluminum and Haixin, but the overall operating capacity was still in the rising stage, superimposed on the continuous opening import window, the supply maintained an upward trend;

3) Alumina prices showed a rising trend in the middle of the week. After the environmental protection and production restriction in Henan Province, the actual output of alumina plants in Binzhou area of Shandong Province decreased due to the influence of environmental protection policies. At the same time, the automobile transportation was also hindered. Therefore, the demand of the northern region was transferred to the southwest region, and the price of the corresponding region stopped falling and rebounded. The short-term supply and demand situation was relatively tight. Generally speaking, alumina will continue to rebound, but the rebound height is limited and it is in a relatively low position;

4) The main logic of the fundamentals is still in place, that is, continuous destocking under low inventory. After the delivery of the month, the position / warehouse receipt reached a new high in the year, and the short-term contradiction was highlighted again. The recent environmental impact and power supply impact on downstream demand in varying degrees. We pay attention to the arrival of inventory inflection point, but the supporting role of macro sentiment can not be underestimated. The short-term aluminum price remains high that 's ok.

Industry research:

1) (12-18) smelter: Yunnan Aluminum Haixin has reduced its output by 50000 tons due to power problems, and the current operating capacity is 400000 tons;

2) In the near future, the company will resume production in the first ten days of next year.

2、 Important data

1) This week, alumina prices showed a general upward trend, and the overall focus continued to move upward. The domestic prices were in the range of 2282-2342 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2320 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan month on month compared with last week, and the average loss of alumina narrowed to 92 yuan;

2) At the end of electrolytic aluminum cost, alumina rebounded, so the current full cost rose to around 12886 yuan / ton, but the spot price center of gravity continued to increase, and the overall profit level of domestic smelters was increased to 4073 yuan / ton;

3) In the same period of last year, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 309000 tons to 356600 tons compared with the same period of last year, and the inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 309000 tons compared with the same period of last year;

4) As of December 18, the basis difference between Shanghai spot and the current month has increased by 230-270, and the basis has returned to a high level after delivery. This week, the enthusiasm of shippers in East China market is high, but the price is relatively strong. When the downstream price is relatively low at the beginning of the week, the purchasing enthusiasm is fair, but then the fear of high rises rises again. Due to the continuous decline of inventory in South China, the supply and circulation of goods is relatively tight, and the price is relatively tight The trading activity among traders increased after the rise of Georgia, while the downstream kept purchasing on demand;

5) LME inventory rebounded, increasing 37400 tons to 1367000 tons, 106000 tons less than the beginning of the year and 120300 tons lower than the same period last year; the 0-3-liter discount of LME aluminum was between $17.1/t and $12.5/t.